The signal was the Andy Dalton trade. When the Philadelphia Eagles brought in the 36-year-old former Bengals and Cowboys starter on a one-year deal during spring league activity, they were not signing a depth piece. They were signing a real backup quarterback with starting experience. The only reason to spend on that piece in March is if the existing QB2 (Tanner McKee) is about to be moved.
That trade has not happened yet. McKee took backup reps behind Hurts at OTAs, attended both days of mandatory minicamp, and reported as scheduled. But the gap between the Eagles' asking price for McKee and the market's offer has been the obstacle for two months. Here is what is actually going on, what McKee is worth, who is buying, and when a deal is most likely.
What McKee Has Done
McKee is entering Year 4 of his rookie contract (drafted by Philadelphia in the 6th round of the 2023 NFL Draft out of Stanford). His career resume is small but encouraging:
- 6 career NFL games played
- 2 career starts (both in 2024 spot-relief duty)
- 61.4% career completion percentage (close to league average)
- 597 career passing yards
- 5 career touchdown passes
- 1 career interception
- 1-1 record as a starter
The encouraging part is the touchdown-to-interception ratio (5:1 on small sample) and the fact that he has won an NFL start. The discouraging part is the small sample itself; nobody outside the building has been able to evaluate McKee in a real season-long role.
He is, by any honest reading, an interesting projection rather than a known commodity. That is exactly the kind of QB that gets traded in the modern NFL, where teams chasing a starting upside swing are willing to pay for a developmental Year-4 player who has flashed in limited duty.
The Asking Price
Per multiple reports, including Bleeding Green Nation citing the New York Jets' reported trade discussions, Howie Roseman initially set the price at a 2026 second-round pick. The Jets reportedly walked when the price did not move.
Bleacher Report's Moe Moton more recently projected the actual return value at a 2027 sixth-round pick. That is a meaningful gap: from a second-rounder (Day 2 capital, signing-bonus relevant for a Year-4 QB market) to a Day 3 late-round pick (almost a salary dump in trade-value math).
The gap matters because the truth is somewhere in the middle. McKee is more valuable than a 6th-rounder. He is probably not worth a 2nd-rounder to most teams. The realistic deal is a 2027 4th or 5th, with possible conditional language tied to McKee playing X percent of his new team's offensive snaps.
The Three Teams That Could Pay
1. New York Jets. The Jets are looking for a credible backup behind Geno Smith and have publicly explored multiple options (including a reach-out to retired Russell Wilson before he moved to broadcasting). The Jets are in win-now mode under their new coaching staff and would value a young upside QB2 over a journeyman. They are the most active suitor and the team most likely to push the price toward Roseman's range.
2. Indianapolis Colts. Shane Steichen, the Eagles' former OC under Doug Pederson and the current Colts head coach, knows McKee from Philadelphia's pre-draft evaluation in 2023. The Colts have an open backup QB situation behind Anthony Richardson (whose status is uncertain after his 2025 trade request). Steichen would value McKee as a developmental piece in a Shanahan-tree offense that fits his throwing style. The relationship is real. The motive is real.
3. The desperation suitor. Every season, at least one team's Week 1 starting QB suffers a meaningful injury and the league sees an in-season QB trade market open up. The Eagles do not have to make a deal today if they believe McKee's value will increase in September or October when a team is desperate for a starting-caliber backup. This is the patient-Howie scenario.
Why the Eagles Are Holding Out
Three reasons:
1. McKee is still under team control through 2026. He is signed on his rookie deal at the league-minimum 5th-year salary structure. The Eagles do not lose him as a free agent until after the 2026 season. They have all of 2026 to work the trade market.
2. Andy Dalton is a real QB2. Dalton has 13 NFL seasons of starting experience, 4 Pro Bowl selections, and a career record of 80-78. He can credibly back up Hurts in 2026 without the Eagles' QB room feeling thin. That gives Roseman the leverage to wait on McKee's price.
3. The trade-deadline value spike. In-season QB injuries create panic markets. A team that loses its starter in October may pay a 3rd-round pick for McKee that they would not pay in June. Roseman has built his reputation on capturing exactly this kind of arbitrage (the C.J. Gardner-Johnson trade-in / trade-out for back-to-back draft picks is a recent textbook example).
What the Eagles Get in Return
Beyond the draft compensation, a McKee trade creates other roster benefits:
- Cap space. McKee's $1.16M salary is minimal but every dollar in the Carter extension negotiation matters.
- Practice rep clarity. Hurts gets all the first-team reps. Dalton gets the QB2 reps. The third-string slot opens up for a UDFA or practice-squad development project.
- Optionality. If a starting-QB injury occurs in 2026, the Eagles can sign a veteran replacement off the street rather than depending on McKee as the emergency QB2.
When the Trade Most Likely Happens
Three windows to watch:
Now through training camp opens (June-late July): Low probability. The Eagles are not in a rush, and no team is currently desperate enough to pay the Eagles' asking price. The Jets backed away in March. Indianapolis is comfortable.
End of preseason / final roster cuts (late August): Moderate probability. This is the natural pressure window. Teams that have evaluated their preseason performance and identified QB depth holes will move on McKee here.
Mid-season after an injury (October-November): High probability. If any team loses their starting QB in September or early October, the McKee trade market opens up immediately, and the Eagles can get a 2027 3rd or 4th-rounder in a panic-pricing window.
The most likely outcome: McKee gets traded in late August or early September for a 2027 4th-round pick. The Eagles take the value compensation, free up the cap space, and lock Dalton in as the official QB2 for the season.
The Downside of Holding Too Long
If the Eagles wait past Week 3-4 and no QB injury opens the market, McKee's trade value plummets. He is a free agent after 2026. A 2026 trade-deadline window (early November) might be the absolute floor; after that, McKee walks for nothing.
That is the worst-case scenario Roseman is managing against. Holding for a 2nd-round price into October is risky because the Jets and Colts will have made their own roster decisions by then. Eventually the patient-Howie play becomes the impatient-Howie problem.
The Bottom Line
Tanner McKee is going to be traded in 2026. The question is when, for what price, and to which team.
The most-likely path: a deal in the late-August / early-September window for a 2027 4th-round pick to a team that has identified a backup QB hole during preseason. The Jets are the favorite. The Colts are the dark horse with Steichen connection.
Until then, McKee remains the Eagles' QB3 on paper but the QB2 in trade conversations. Andy Dalton is the actual backup. Jalen Hurts is the franchise. The depth chart is settled in real terms even if the formal designation has not been made yet.
Eagles fans should watch for two events as the trade probability indicators: any preseason starting-QB injury around the league (which boosts McKee's market price) and any roster cut announcement during the last week of August (which is when the deal most likely lands).
The trade is coming. Roseman just wants the right price.
